In A Two-Man Race, Cruz Is Beating Trump 2 To 1 In Delegates
That’s right, since Rubio dropped out, Cruz has added more than twice as many delegates as Trump. And he just added another 14 delegates, sweeping Wyoming.
It’s a two-man race. Kasich literally doesn’t count because he’s mathematically eliminated. At this rate, Trump will find himself mathematically eliminated by the end of May. To have a chance at making 1,237 in California, he needs to take almost every single delegate between New York on Tuesday and Washington State (that’s 466 delegates).
It’s pretty unlikely that will happen.
So Trump has his army of misfits and zombie media blasting the fact that the GOP in Wyoming, like Colorado, chooses its delegates how it pleases, not submitting to the Orwellian “will of the people.”
Apparently, to Trump-zombie media like Drudge, Republican delegates to state conventions are not really voters, unless Democrats and independents and cranks who wear a boot for a hat can participate. In fact, Georgia, where Trump won the primary and 42 delegates, had its district conventions today, and let’s say they didn’t go as Donald would have wanted.
Looks like the Ted Cruz team put the smack down on Trump today at the GA District Conventions for delegate slots…It pays to be organized…(this is not a scientific poll but is based on reports and observations from around the State).
In the 7th Congressional District convention, a Trump supporter actually took the American flag and walked out because the other delegates wouldn’t vote any Branch Trumpidians as delegates. Waaah.
Trump-zombie Breitbart called it an “uproar.” I call it hilarious.
For disclosure: I was a credentialed delegate to the Georgia 8th Congressional District convention but could not attend for personal reasons. I’m sad that I missed the fun. I believe I am still credentialed for the state convention in June, which I plan to attend–by then I hope we won’t see actual violence because we’ll know that Trump won’t make it on the first ballot and these delegates actually matter.
I am not making any predictions for New York–if you believe the polls, Trump should win big, everywhere. But all it takes is one district to break for Cruz, or not give Donald a plurality, and Cruz will have delegates in New York. I’m not saying it will happen, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Under the state’s complex rules, all three delegates in each of the state’s 27 congressional districts are awarded to the winner if he or she gets to 50 percent there — meaning that even a dominant Trump performance short of that mark could leak some delegates to his rivals. If Trump wins a congressional district by only a plurality, he’ll receive two delegates, and the runner-up will receive one.
It’s possible that Trump could capture only 70 percent of New York’s 95 delegates, splitting the remainder with Cruz and Kasich. If that occurs, even with solid wins in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, which are all winner-take-all (Connecticut is winner-take-all over 50 percent–the latest Emerson poll has Trump at exactly 50 percent), Trump won’t be able to maintain enough momentum to hit 1,237 without a blowout in California.
There will be no Trump blowout in California, where Cruz is closing the ever-shrinking gap.
It’s going to come down to the convention and the delegates. Politics is about the fundamentals, and Cruz has the best fundamentals in the race. Cruz has beaten nearly $2 billion in free media, legions of Trump Twitter bots, withering and despicable personal attacks, and a phalanx of Trump-zombie political coverage from Breitbart and Drudge.
Despite all of that, and being pegged as irredeemably unlikable, Cruz is beating Trump mano a mano by a 2 to 1 margin since it became a two man race.
There’s still hope.
No comments:
Post a Comment