What is Vladimir Putin’s game? The recent unrest in eastern Ukraine has been presented by the Kremlin as an autonomous phenomenon, an upsurge of patriotic feeling among embattled ethnic Russians who long for the protection of the Motherland against what they see as a neo-nationalist regime in Kiev. It may be true that the initial impulse came from locals acting without Russia’s direct involvement. But it is becoming clear that, just as in Crimea, many of the “separatists” are not just taking their orders from Moscow, but are very probably Russian troops in paper-thin disguise.
The key difference is that, unlike with Crimea, the Ukrainian government is in no mood to sit quietly by. Its efforts to reclaim control of official buildings seized by pro-Russian forces have already led to bloodshed, and reportedly several fatalities. It becomes increasingly difficult to see where and how a line can be drawn between “anti-terrorist operations”, and a state of open war.
The question, then, is what Mr Putin hopes to gain. His annexation of Crimea may have been illegal, but it has been grudgingly accepted by the international community as a fait accompli. But rather than banking that gain, he has continued to do everything he can to destabilise Ukraine, not just with threats to cut off its energy but further violating its sovereignty by supporting (or indeed orchestrating) unrest within its borders. Does he think he can simply snip off further pieces of territory at will, or hope to set up more “autonomous” enclaves on his borders where Russia’s writ can run? With every day that passes, it becomes harder to see how further violence, chaos and diplomatic and economic turmoil can be avoided. The only one who can calm the situation is Mr Putin – and he seems to be in no mood to back down.
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