Obama prepares to defy voters' will -- again
BY: Byron York November 11, 2014 | 5:00 am
There are several reasons why Republican leaders don't want President Obama to use unilateral executive action to legalize millions of illegal immigrants. First, House and Senate GOP leaders oppose bypassing Congress on principle. Second, they disagree with the policy. And third — perhaps most importantly — they know voters want lawmakers to focus on the economy.
The president has other ideas — again. Back in 2009 and 2010, voters virtually pleaded with Obama and fellow Democrats to focus exclusively on jobs and economic growth. Instead, Obama devoted a year to passing, on a strict party-line basis, his party's national healthcare scheme. It's still unpopular.
Now voters have sent a similar message: Stay on the economy. But Obama is determined to have his way on immigration.
That's not what voters want right now. Exit polls from last week's midterms show a deep and continuing economic anxiety still at the top of the public's concerns.
First, 78 percent of the voters said they were very or somewhat worried about the direction of the economy in the next year. Second, just 22 percent described the state of the economy as good, while 48 percent called it not so good, and 22 percent said the state of the economy is poor.
The people who said the economy is good — a little more than one-quarter of the electorate — voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. The people who said the economy is poor, a group about the same size, voted overwhelmingly for Republicans.
The group in the middle — those who said the state of the economy is not so good — was by far the biggest segment of the electorate, 48 percent of all voters. And they voted decisively for Republicans, 58 percent to 41 percent for Democrats.
That's a huge change from other elections during Obama's presidency. In the last midterms in 2010, the not-so-good group supported Democrats by a few points. Then, in 2012, they voted for Democrats by a bigger margin, 55 percent to 42 percent for Republicans.
Now, however, they have switched to the GOP, and by an impressive 17-point margin. "What that says is, to some degree, the voters' patience has run out," says one well-connected Republican strategist. "They're saying, 'Enough. You've had enough time.'"
"Voters just want some wins on the board," the strategist continued. "They want things to begin to move forward. If the Keystone pipeline were to happen quickly, they would say people in Washington are finally sitting down and focusing on our problems."
Voters would likely feel the same way if Congress and the president were dealing on trade agreements and taxes. And that might happen — if the president weren't so determined to put immigration first.
"Before the end of the year, we're going to take whatever lawful actions that I can take that I believe will improve the functioning of our immigration system," Obama said at his post-election news conference last Wednesday. That guarantees the fight will consume the last weeks of 2014 and spill over into 2015.
When Obama acts, Congress will have no choice but to react. Obama's edict will involve ordering the executive branch not to enforce laws that Congress has passed and that lawmakers have specifically declined to change. Writing the nation's immigration laws is the responsibility of Congress, and Obama's action will likely be a major encroachment on the legislature's constitutional authority.
Congress will have options. Obama's executive order, or whatever other form the action takes, will not have the force of law. Lawmakers can overturn it, in all or in part. Congress can also vote to deny funding for implementation of all or part of Obama's action.
Of course, Senate Democrats — the same ones who bitterly denounced the filibuster in recent years — will use the filibuster to try to stop any such move. Perhaps they will succeed. On the other hand, Republicans will probably have 54 votes in the next Senate, so there is also the possibility that six moderate (or at least very nervous) Democrats might defect to push the GOP over the 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster.
Even if Congress overturns Obama's executive action, he will undoubtedly veto the overturn. In the end, the president can win, but Congress can assure that he pays a high political price.
But the voters will pay a higher price. They sent a clear message to Washington in the midterms: Work on the economy. Yet it appears the president is ready to ignore the message one more time.
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