Why Republicans Will Take the Senate

Why Republicans Will Take the Senate

By Caitlin Huey-Burns - August 28, 2014

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The second of two parts

Harry Reid has been waxing optimistic when asked about the future of Democrats’ hold on the U.S. Senate. In an interview with a local television station last week, the Senate majority leader said it is unlikely that Republicans will gain the six seats necessary to gain control of the upper chamber.

Netting six Senate seats is a challenge, especially since part of that equation would require Republicans to retain their own competitive seats in places like Georgia and Kentucky. But Republicans believe that the stars, moons, and planets are all aligning for just such a changing tide this November.

For one thing, the president's party has historically struggled in the officeholder’s sixth year. What’s more, Democrats have to defend 21 of the 36 seats up for re-election this time, and of the nine most competitive races, seven are currently held by Democrats. Indeed, the top challenge for the party this cycle is defending seats in several states President Obama lost in 2012.

On the other hand, Republicans historically have a difficult time knocking off Democratic incumbents. And this cycle, several vulnerable Democrats have the advantage of family legacies that they hope will shield them against the president’s unpopularity and the changing politics of their states. Indeed, Democratic incumbents have shown resiliency in the polls so far.

But that advantage may be fleeting. While no Republican challenger is leading an incumbent by a significant margin, no Democratic incumbent in a difficult race is polling above 50 percent -- a threshold that has come to signal vulnerability. Republicans view this trend as a sign of their strength heading into Labor Day weekend, after which the campaigns traditionally ramp up and constituents start to pay closer attention to the candidates.  

The momentum appears to be on the Republicans’ side, as Obama’s approval rating is low, dissatisfaction with Washington is high, incumbents are showing signs of weakness, and the midterm dynamics and climate are favorable.

Three Democratic-held states already appear to be in the Republicans’ column: Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. If the GOP can hang on to Georgia and Kentucky, they would need to pick up just three more to win the majority. And there are a few different pathways that get them there.

Perhaps most significantly, Republicans survived what could have been a problematic spring and summer: With most of the primaries over, the party has avoided the selection of flawed, stumble-prone candidates, a tendency that cost them seats in previous years. Part of Democrats’ strategy in difficult races was tied to a repeat of this history of picking weak candidates itself. The GOP’s feat bolstered Republicans’ prospects in several races -- for now.

One of the most recent examples came in Alaska last week, when Republicans nominated establishment-favored Dan Sullivan to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. The incumbent is leading by 4.6 percentage points in the RCP average, but analysts expect the race to tighten as Sullivan’s general election campaign revs up.

In Colorado, Republican Rep. Cory Gardner cleared what could have been a troublesome GOP field, and is now just 2.5 percentage points behind Democratic Sen. Mark Udall despite months of negative ads targeting him. The Colorado race figures to be one of the closest in the country, and will keep both Republicans and Democrats on their toes up through election night. Though the state isn’t a must-win for Republicans’ hopes of claiming the majority, it will serve as an important race for the party in both the midterm and the presidential contest two years from now. President Obama won there in 2008 and 2012, and a GOP victory in 2014 could have an impact on 2016.

Another example of the same dynamic comes in Iowa, where both conservatives and establishment figures got their top pick in Joni Ernst. Democrat Bruce Braley had out-of-the-gate stumbles that brought early attention to this race. But Democrats are spending money on the airwaves in an effort to increase Ernst’s negatives and portray her as too conservative for Iowa. This race will also be a nail-biter: A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll released Wednesday shows it virtually tied, with Braley up by just two-tenths of a point. (The RCP average has Ernst ahead by that same margin.)

Republicans’ best hopes rest in states Mitt Romney won in 2012: Arkansas, North Carolina, Alaska and Louisiana.

Races in the first two are virtually tied. In Louisiana, Mary Landrieu leads the Republican field by several points, but she falls behind Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy by one point in December runoff matchups (the likely scenario if no one clears the 50 percent mark on Nov. 4).  Both Landrieu and Mark Pryor in Arkansas have long-standing, well-respected legacies in their states (both have featured their popular fathers in ads), and could well hold their ground despite the unfavorable climate. Nonetheless, they still remain among the most vulnerable senators, and their Republican opponents are financially competitive.

Republicans argue that 2014 will be the most difficult climate yet for even battle-tested Democratic incumbents. The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a list of what it dubbed “The Frightened Five” -- incumbents who aren’t polling nearly as well as they were around this time in 2008 (their last elections). States on the list: Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Louisiana and Alaska.

"For the last five months, Democrats have been saying that their ‘legacy candidates’ provide an advantage, but the data shows it’s irrelevant,” said Brad Dayspring, the spokesman for the NRSC. “If it were true, Landrieu, Begich, Udall, and Pryor would be at or above 50 percent.”

Although Mitch McConnell doesn’t come from a famous Kentucky political family, it could be argued that under that logic, he is also vulnerable.  The RCP average shows him leading Alison Lundergan Grimes by just three percentage points, with 47.6 percent of the support. But Republicans could win red state seats in Kentucky and Georgia and still fail to claim the majority. Their chances increase, however, if they make gains in Colorado, or Iowa, or North Carolina or even Michigan. While New Hampshire might be more of a long shot for Republicans compared to other states, a narrowing of that race over the next several weeks could signal trouble for Democrats elsewhere, including in normally dependable Democratic strongholds of Oregon and Minnesota. Democrat Jeanne Shaheen began airing her first negative ad in the Granite State this week.

Current events could also shape the landscape. Some Democrats in tough re-elections have voiced significant concern about the prospect of Obama using executive action to curb deportations, thus bypassing Congress. Foreign policy, with the situations in Iraq, Gaza and elsewhere in the Middle East, could also play a role in some races where a pro-defense candidate is on the ticket or in states with a strong military presence.

Lawmakers return from recess in September, when those issues might play out more vividly.

Also upon their return, the specter of another government shutdown -- which sent GOP poll numbers plummeting last time -- looms. Congress must pass a short-term spending bill by Oct. 1, and some Republicans have raised the possibility of a budget fight if the president moves unilaterally on immigration policy.

Democrats, meanwhile, will likely reprise legislation on the minimum wage and pay equity, designed to turn out supporters on Nov. 4. Republicans don’t seem to be worried about those issues, and argue that there is little major legislation or an overarching issue to which Democratic incumbents can cling.

"Historically there has been a big or single issue, but that’s less the case this cycle because voters see problems everywhere,” said Dayspring. “It’s all going badly: economy, Obamacare, spending, foreign policy, immigration, management of government. It’s shaping up to be the ‘chaos election.’ It’s near impossible for a Democrat senator to turn to voters and say, ‘Here’s what I’ve done for you, here’s how I’m different’ because of the way Harry Reid has run the Senate and the public perception that everything is in chaos. There’s not that issue-based life preserver that incumbents need.”

Read more: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/08/28/why_republicans_will_take_the_senate_123788.html#ixzz3BiVEUfvW 
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Read more: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/08/28/why_republicans_will_take_the_senate_123788.html#ixzz3BiUtn9sq 
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