7 Reasons Attacking Syria Does Not Further International Security or U.S. National Interests

 

 

• Kyle Becker
• On September 4, 2013
• http://kylenbecker.com

Let’s visualize the geopolitical balance of the Middle East in religious terms. Does anyone see a problem with attacking the Assad regime with this religious map?

Toppling the ruthless dictator Bashar al-Assad presents a host of consequences that are worse than the status quo of a Syrian civil war. Here are just 7 of them:

1. It would remove an adversary of Sunni radicals, allowing them to unify a swathe of land from Jordan to the Iranian border to the Dardanelles of Turkey. This is destabilizing from a neorealist or balance-of-power standpoint.

2. It would expand the power base and influence of the Sunnis, including the terrorist group of al Qaeda and associates like the Nusrah Front.

3. It would interject the United States into the picture to once again be the unifying enemy that focuses Islamists’ attention, instead of allowing their religious war to proceed against one another instead of against us.

4. It could potentially launch a devastating proxy war against Israel, particularly if the Shi’ite Hezbollah is ejected from influence in Syria.

5. It could present a new opportunity for the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood, which was recently expelled from power in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood persecuted Shi’ites and Christians under Morsi and continue to do so.

6. The U.S. spends more blood and treasure carrying out a domestically and internationally unpopular military strike against Syria. The credibility of the Nobel Peace Prize winning president Barack Obama continues to be shot. Well, that may not be a bug, but a feature. Nonetheless, it is the wrong thing to do.

7. It could provoke a regional war as desperate Shi’ites retaliate to repel whom they perceive to be a threatening power. If we recall our Thucydides, this is why the Athenians fought the Peloponnesian War against Sparta.

This war is about short-term expediency, whether it be Operation: Save Face, distract the populace from Obama’s disastrous domestic agenda, rally around the flag (which doesn’t work for long), or remove a dictator to benefit internationalists or radical Islamists.

When it comes to foreign policy, one has to have long-term strategic vision. One needs a realpolitik view of things, knowing how to wield power and when not to, how to signal appropriately, work well with allies, protect U.S. interests and further national goals.