Florida

Tony Lee : Human Events


After a dominant victory in South Carolina, Newt Gingrich storms into Florida today. Fortunately for Gingrich, he also has two more debates -- tonight and on Thursday. Gingrich is leading by up to eight points, according to an InsiderAdvantage poll. Five of those points, however, should be shaved off because Romney has a lot of absentee ballots that have been mailed in his favor already.

With that said, here are five things to look for going into Florida:

1) In 2008, Mitt Romney narrowly won the white vote (read: he ran to the right of McCain), but McCain won the Hispanic vote and ended up winning Florida. Somehow, Gingrich could actually be positioned to win the more conservative white vote and the Hispanic vote. Should he do this, it gives Gingrich a powerful message that he could also be a better candidate than Romney in the general election in retaining the conservative vote while competing in minority communities.

2) Florida is a closed primary. I wish all primaries would be closed, but Florida is the first one that actually is. No independents, or, inexplicably, Democrats can vote in the primary. Since only Republicans are allowed to vote, this should favor the candidate who is perceived as being more conservative, who is Gingrich.

3) Absentee and early voting. Keep in mind that nearly 200,000 people still have their absentee ballots and have not mailed them in. In addition, early voting has started in Florida, so people can vote throughout the week. This means that every day is a mini primary and events such as debates can make a difference in impacting turnout.

4) Florida is won on television. How much free media Gingrich gets this week versus how much paid media Romney puts up will be worth monitoring.

5) Endorsements. Will Sarah Palin, whose South Carolina endorsement of Gingrich was instrumental in allowing Gingrich to accelerate past Romney, also endorse him in Florida to bring the hammer down on Romney’s candidacy?