After years of US budget deficits and a prolonged economic slump, Uncle Sam is now just days away from what once was unthinkable -- running up a debt larger than the US economy.
Under the US Treasury’s current schedule, the $139 billion in new debt to be sold between today and Nov. 9 will push the total debt load to $15.217 trillion -- and that will surpass the country’s current $15.198 trillion GDP, or gross domestic product -- the amount of goods and services we produce annually.
It will be the first time in modern history the US debt surpassed the GDP.
“It’s no surprise,” said economist Steve Blitz of ITG Investment Research. “It’s just math. We’ve accumulated a tremendous amount of spending in the past 10 years.”
While the historic event will have no real affect on the economy, in and of itself, it marks an important move in the country’s debt burden and will put the US on a short list of nations -- including Greece and Italy -- whose debt is more than 100 percent of GDP.
And no, there is no chance of a White House pardon for this economic turkey.
The US Treasury has piled up a record $15.078 trillion of debt as of today. That will swell under a series of new borrowings in coming days. It will pass the GDP around Nov. 9, according to data from the Treasury’s Bureau of Public Debt.
Just last week, the GDP was clocked chugging along better than expected, producing $15.198 trillion of spending in the third quarter at an annual rate of 2.5 percent -- stronger than the anemic 1.8 percent economists earlier expected.
Blitz said the pendulum could swing back the other way -- and the debt dip down below the GDP -- if the economy picks up more strength while also adding more tax revenues to governments at all levels.
There was a brief spell in July when debt came close to eclipsing GDP, totalling 99.6 percent, before pulling back.
“We’ve had wars, big tax cuts, a lot of crises like 9-11 and economic reversals to blame for the slow economy and jumps in government spending,” Blitz said.
Blitz recalled the last time the US was in a nosedive and broke into the red was during the early years of the presidency of Ronald Reagan.
But despite the economic downturn in the early 1980s, the US debt didn’t pass the GDP, thanks to emergency legislation in Congress to correct the fiscal problems -- plus a milestone tax overhaul to bring in more revenue, Blitz said.
“We can only be hopeful that Congress will have some adult discussion to fix the problems we face,” he said.
Blitz said the stronger GDP report last week could actually prolong the political stalemate in Washington.
“The growth rate of 2.5 percent isn’t strong enough to remedy the employment situation right now,” Blitz said. “But it is strong enough to keep people sitting on the fence and avoiding taking any action.
It marks a country's debt burden an important measure, the United States a short list of countries including Greece and Italy and its debt of more than 100% of GDP.
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