Islamic State; How Far Can It Go?

Is anywhere in Syria and Iraq safe from Islamic State? After months in which the group seemed bowed, if not beaten, it is on the march in both countries. In Iraq the jihadists have captured Ramadi, the capital of Anbar, a large, sandy province abutting Syria. Over the border they have nabbed Palmyra, home to world-renowned Roman-era antiquities. Such Sunni-majority areas are particularly susceptible to IS. Iraq’s Sunnis are marginalised and lack fighters to defend their neighbourhoods; eastern Syria is an IS stronghold, from which its men can advance westwards. IS may not, then, yet pose a threat to Baghdad, Iraq’s capital, or to Damascus, the Syrian one. But further gains are likely. Iraq’s Shia militias, the country’s main resistance, look ever more stretched; Syria’s regime is fraying. Unfortunately IS’s conquests have a snowball effect: with each one, it amasses weapons and attracts recruits wowed by its success.