Study: 220,000 New Cases Of Ebola In West Africa By Year's End

by AWR Hawkins

Oct 20, 2014 1:39 PM PT

A study paid for by the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) predicts 220,000 new cases of Ebola in West Africa between now and the end of 2014, suggesting "the bulk of the epidemic [is] yet to come."

This figure is based on predictions of over 100,000 new cases each month for November and December, plus new cases that will emerge in what remains of October. According to Israeli National News, the study recognizes improved "interventions" but claims they "are not sufficient to halt the progress of the [Ebola] epidemic."

If the predictions prove true, this means "close to 5 percent of Liberia's total population will become Ebola-infected by December 31, [2014]" and the epidemic will be worse at the start of 2015 instead of better.

The study shows that "person-to-person" transmission of the disease remains the easiest way to get it. Because of this, researchers emphasized the need to add better "contract tracing" to current interventions if the epidemic is to be reined in. Yet in Liberia, where the disease is rampant, the study predicts that even with 100 percent"contact tracing" another 80,000 would become infected by year's end.

In the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that "contract tracing can stop Ebola in its tracks." Such tracing not only includes finding anyone who came in contact with an infected person, but also watching them for symptom development and isolating them from for 21 days if symptoms do appear. 

Breitbart News previously reported that Amber Joy Vinson, a nurse who treated Ebola patient Thomas Eric Duncan, experienced symptoms of Ebola and is currently in isolation. 

Follow AWR Hawkins on Twitter@AWRHawkins  Reach him directly at awrhawkins@breitbart.com.

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