2014 Senate landscape tilts in GOP's favor
Cliff Owen, AP
Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., is seen as the front-runner in the race to replace Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller.
WASHINGTON — Contests are set in nearly half the states for November's elections, and with few contested primary elections remaining on the calendar, Republicans are enjoying clear advantages in their quest for a Senate takeover.
"The environment is really good right now, and the quality of candidates is superior," said Scott Reed, a veteran GOP strategist and senior political aide at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "These are the best candidates I've seen in 32 years. With a good environment and good candidates, it's a good combination. We like where we are."
Five months out from Election Day, Republicans have largely avoided the same mistakes of the two previous election cycles in which the party nominated lackluster candidates who cost the party winnable seats in Colorado, Delaware, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada.
This year GOP nominees in Democratic-held seats in South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana have consistently led in polls and are favored in November. Victory in the trio of states would provide half of the six seats Republicans need to net gain for a takeover.
The Rothenberg Political Report, a non-partisan election outfit, forecasts Republicans will gain between four and eight seats this November.
Rothenberg analyst Nathan Gonzales shared Reed's view that the GOP has largely tapped the candidates favored by the establishment but cautioned that many are still untested as the races shift to general election mode. "It seems like we've stepped through some of the minefields for Republicans so far, but when you think there's not a new way to lose a race, Republicans seem to find one," he said.
The party is also enjoying a three-to-one advantage: Republicans are defending only two Senate seats considered highly competitive — in Kentucky and Georgia — compared to six seats Democrats will be challenged to hold in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan and North Carolina.
Republicans have also sought to expand the map by getting strong candidates on the ballot in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Oregon, where Democrats continue to hold leads but where the party could be in trouble if 2014 proves to be a seismic election year against Democrats.
Still, hope is not lost for Democrats. "They have incumbents who are running good campaigns, they have strong profiles in their state, they are good fundraisers and they have good teams," said Gonzales. "Their incumbents are structurally in good shape." Historically, incumbents have also consistently proved tough to beat.
Justin Barasky, a spokesman for the Senate Democrats' campaign operation, noted that Democratic candidates have yet to unleash their campaign war chests, and the party has put two traditionally conservative seats in Kentucky and Georgia in contention. A victory in either state would provide a potent firewall against a GOP takeover.
"We feel really good. We know there are going to be a lot of close races, but we feel like we're winning them, and I don't see six states for Republicans because we have expanded the map in a real way," he said.
Democrats may also have a new prospect in Mississippi, where GOP Sen. Thad Cochran heads to a June 24run-off against state Sen. Chris McDaniel after failing to secure 50% in Tuesday's primary.
MORE: Miss. Senate candidates shift to runoff mode
If McDaniel pulls off an upset, Democrats believe they have a chance to put a third GOP-held state in play because McDaniel's Tea Party-styled politics could be less appealing to a general electorate.
"I think it's possible. I do not think it's likely," said John Bruce, who chairs the political science department at Ole Miss. "This state, the Republican instinct, particularly among white voters in the state, is so strong that it would take an extraordinary effort by the Democratic candidate to prevail," he said.
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