After one very bad week for President Obama, Republicans are hoping that three administration scandals will equal six Senate seats, the number the GOP needs to win in 2014 to capture the chamber.
As anyone who observed the last two election cycles knows, predicting the outcome of an election this far in advance is dangerous. At this point in 2009, Senate Republicans appeared headed for further losses, yet ended up flipping seven seats, including in reliably Democratic states. At this point in 2011, the GOP looked prime to win back the Senate, yet the Democrats actually picked up two seats on Nov. 6 of last year.
But independent analysts say that if Republicans do win control of the Senate in 2014, this last week could prove pivotal. Even if the three issues that have Obama under fire fail to fatally wound his presidency, their ability to motivate the Republican base could be crucial developments.
“Democratic senators and candidates running in red states already had to walk a fine line. They need the president to be popular enough to turn out the Democratic base and not so unpopular that he enrages the Republican base,” said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. “These controversies have the potential to tilt the entire landscape against the president and make it more difficult for Democratic candidates to run against the tide in Republican states.”
Democrats are defending 21 seats in 2014, compared to just 14 for the Republicans, with each party having to protect a seat that is up in a special election — Hawaii for the Democrats; South Carolina for the Republicans.
At first blush, that might appear to put the Republicans in the driver’s seat, particularly because they’re targeting Democratic-held seats in conservative states that voted heavily against Obama last year. Those target rich seats are in states like Alaska, Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia (the latter three are open seats.) But the Republicans early fundraising woes, and trouble with recruiting, have cast an early pall on their prospects.
Similar problems cost the GOP prime opportunities last year, while strong Democratic campaigns overwhelmed Republican Senate challengers in Montana and North Dakota, states that voted strongly against Obama. The Democratic money advantage remains strong.
But Republicans claim plenty of reasons for optimism.
In South Dakota and West Virginia, they landed as candidates their best possible challengers, including popular ex-Gov. Mike Rounds and well-known, well-liked Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, respectively.
Of course, if the GOP takes the Senate, it will likely control all of Congress — as it has very good shot of holding onto the House. In terms of new liberal legislation, Obama will be a lame duck for two years.
“ObamaCare implementation and a smorgasbord of scandals are making Democrats toxic and politically paralyzing a president unable to use his bully pulpit effectively,” said Brad Dayspring, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Scandal after scandal not only motivates the conservative base, but it demoralizes Democrats.”
David M. Drucker is the senior congressional correspondent for the Washington Examiner.
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