How Will the Supreme Court Decide on Obamacare?

How Will the Supreme Court Decide on Obamacare?

Very soon, the Supreme Court will be rendering judgment on the constitutionality of ObamaCare. It is one of the most highly anticipated decisions in decades, and for good reason. Whatever the outcome, it’s going to be a political earthquake. The only question is the degree to which it will shake up the political and policy landscape.

Of course, at this point, only a handful of people have any idea how the court will rule, and they aren’t talking (or at least one presumes — and hopes — they aren’t). So there’s no real way to predict what the Court will decide.

Still, it’s possible to boil down the various scenarios to a handful that capture the most likely outcomes, and to examine the implications of those scenarios through both a policy and a political lens. Indeed, for those who have spent the past three years opposing ObamaCare, it’s critically important to be prepared for all eventualities because what the key players in this drama say and do in the days after the Court issues its decision could be just as important as the decision itself to the future of ObamaCare and American health care.

Scenario 1: The Court Upholds ObamaCare. ...

Scenario 2: Only the Individual Mandate Falls. ...

Scenario 3: The Court Strikes Down the Mandate and Other Provisions Too. ...

Scenario 4: The Court Strikes Down the Entire Law. ...