A year ago, Republican capture of the Senate in the 2012 election was regarded as close to a sure thing. The political direction of the country had shifted in favor of Republicans. Democrats faced the unenviable task of defending 23 seats, Republicans only 10. And 8 of the GOP seats were safely in Republican hands.
Now Republican prospects are not as rosy. The odds on a Republican Senate are no worse than 50-50, maybe better. But the effort to oust Democrats, who currently control the Senate 53-47, looks more difficult than it did.
What has changed? Most significant may be President Obama’s improved chances of reelection. He has enormous liabilities, but he has managed to alter the political environment enough to make Republicans and the rich a live issue in the campaign. Before, his record in the White House, especially on the economy, was the lone issue.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen says how Obama fares will affect Senate races. The relationship is pretty simple. If Obama is reelected, Democrats are likely to hold the Senate. If the Republican nominee wins, Republicans are odds-on to take over the Senate, while retaining the House.
Shrinking Senate Hopes
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