Polls these days show an unusually large degree of volatility. In the nine most recent polls covered by RealClearPolitics.com, President Obama’s job approval ratings have ranged from 44 percent to 53 percent, the highest any national poll has shown since last May, soon after Osama bin Laden was killed. In general, in election matchups between Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the range is from a tie in the new Gallup/USA Today national survey to a 10-point lead for Obama. When matched up against former Sen. Rick Santorum, the range has been from a Santorum lead of three points to Obama being up by 11 points.
In such situations, the first thing to do is to knock out the high and low polls and average the rest; it’s the easiest way to provide a control for the inevitable outlier surveys. In terms of Obama’s job approval, the remaining seven averaged 47 percent. It should be noted, though, that the three highest, all 50 percent, were from two weeks ago. Going into Election Day, an incumbent wants to see a job approval rating of 50 percent or higher. But one with 48 or 49 percent approval can still win by a nose. President George W. Bush did this, with a 48 percent job approval rating in the final Gallup Poll before his narrow, 51 percent-to-48 percent win over John Kerry in 2004.
In the Obama-Romney trial heats, the average of the seven represented a 7-point lead for the incumbent. When up against Santorum, it was just under an 8-point lead. Trial heat figures this far out do not have as good a track record of indicating election outcomes as later ones. The takeaway from these numbers is that the electability premium that Romney had over Santorum has, for now, virtually evaporated. It’s not to say there isn’t a lot more for Democrats to exploit running against Santorum than against Romney. But the natural edge is largely gone, with very different results from a few months ago—though admittedly, Santorum was an unknown then.
Link:Polls Apart - Charlie Cook - NationalJournal.com
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